000
FXUS64 KBMX 172058
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT CUT-OFF LOW OVER TX WILL OPEN AND BE ABSORBED ON SUNDAY
WITH THE LARGE CANADIAN LOW. THIS EXTEND THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS TO THE NORTHERN GULF...SENDING A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS DOWN.
FIRST FRONT SLIDES DOWN AND STALLS ON SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE BACK TO INDICATING AN
MCS MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY. AS WITH
YESTERDAY...THIS LOOKS TO AFFECT TN AND MAYBE NORTHEAST AL MONDAY
EVENING. HAVE REFLECTED THIS WITH SLIGHT POPS IN THE NE COUNTIES.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT TO HAVE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT SLIDE DOWN AND
STALL ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...INSTABILITIES WILL BE HIGHER. SCATTERED STRONG
STORMS TO ISOLATED SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EAST COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH GETS A PUSH FROM BUILDING RIDGE BY THURSDAY.
NET CHANGE WILL BE WARMER AND MOISTER CONDITIONS FOR ALL ALABAMA.
EXPECTING TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH EVEN
SOME ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER MENTIONED...THE USUAL MID-LEVEL CAPPING IS NON-EXISTENT.
WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...AIRMASS STORMS A GOOD BET. THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF THE MICROBURST SEASON.
JONES/90
&&
.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AREAS
OF THIN CIRRUS THROUGH 08Z. BKN MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF AN APPOACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AFTER 08Z. GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
APPROACH THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 55 76 58 81 60 / 10 40 40 10 20
ANNISTON 56 77 58 83 62 / 10 40 40 10 20
BIRMINGHAM 58 80 60 84 66 / 10 30 40 10 20
TUSCALOOSA 57 82 60 86 65 / 10 20 20 10 10
CALERA 59 79 61 84 65 / 10 20 30 10 10
AUBURN 58 77 62 83 66 / 10 10 0 10 10
MONTGOMERY 59 84 63 87 66 / 10 10 0 10 10
TROY 57 80 61 86 65 / 10 10 0 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
&&
$$
