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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBGM 270242
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1042 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME WET
SNOW BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN COLD FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1040 PM UPDATE...PRECIPITATION HAS REALLY DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA
THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
LIGHTER INTENSITY, WHILE WE SAW A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS, AMOUNTS WERE NOT AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH. THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN FALL
MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE WYOMING VALLEY OF NEPA. THIS
WILL ALLOW ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY CHANGE OR MIX
WITH SOME WET SNOW. AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A COATING
OF PRECIP LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE SHOULD BE
PRECIPITATION FREE BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A BIT
UNSETTLED FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY, ALONG WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN NY STATE AND
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON
SOUTH AND EAST. AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT WILL BE THE TEMPS
THAT WILL BE THE BIG STORY. MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY WILL BE
OUR "WARM" DAY, ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET. TEMPS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 30S BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA/US WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INCLUDED CHC
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL THEN RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FCST PD. THE LOWEST CONDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...WITH -RASN AND FOG HAMPERING VSBY'S THROUGH
02-04Z...AND LWR CIGS LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THE NGT. 

ON FRI...WE'RE ANTICIPATING CIG BASES TO ELEVATE INTO THE MVFR
CAT...WITH VFR PSBL AT KAVP DURG THE AFTN.

SFC WINDS MAINLY AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT OUT
OF THE NW ON FRI TO 8-10 KT. 
 
.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS. 

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM