Get Forecast For:
Lawrenceville Weather

Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBGM 291420
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1020 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER
AND DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS
QUICKLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE THIS MORNING. ALSO REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY, THINKING THAT IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

400 AM EDT UPDATE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT. 
THIS COMBINATION HAVE RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT 
RADIATIONAL  COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPR 
40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE 
SHORT LIVED AS IT WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY 00Z TONIGHT. WE 
WILL BE INFLUENCED ENOUGH BY THE RIDGE TODAY THAT THROUGH 00Z 
TONIGHT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST TODAY SFC 
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN INDUCING WAA AND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO 
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 
70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST AND A BROAD UPPR 
LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL 
ALLOW FOR SEMI-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED INTO OUR REGION. 
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ALSO PLACE US WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTER FLOW 
ALOFT ALLOWING MULTIPLE WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTING 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT CONVECTION 
WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK VORTICITY 
MAXIMA WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE. 
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON THIS BUT CAN NOT RULE IT OUT. 

THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL START TO PROPAGATE EAST ON SAT INCREASING 
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM 
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF 
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON WHEN THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH. 
THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT OR LATE SUNDAY 
MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SAT 
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE 
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...THESE PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 STANDARD 
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL... WHICH WILL CREATE A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL 
EVENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. 

STILL EXPECTING AROUND A HALF AN INCH TOTAL FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN NY. THE TROF WILL FILL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, AND BY
MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY
AND PA. 

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HANGING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE
THE RIDGE REBUILDS, THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL END AND
SUNNY/WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DENSE VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
KELM NEAR AIRPORT MIN THROUGH 13Z BEFORE LIFTING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CI
TODAY AND A MID DECK DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z. ATTM IT
APPEARS THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SE TODAY AROUND 5-8 KNOTS
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...SHRA AND SCT TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.

SUN-MON...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM