FXUS61 KBGM 252352
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
752 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016
A cold front will cause scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tonight. Any lingering early morning showers will give way to
sunshine during the day Friday. High pressure and warm air will
build back into NY and PA for the weekend, before another frontal
system spreads thunderstorms into our region late Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
745 PM Update...
As expected, other than an isolated shower that drifted along the
NY Thruway, there has been a lull in activity this afternoon-
early evening. However, clouds also broke up to allow heating,
which has resulted in instability. This is pretty much going as
anticipated, though the forecast has been updated to finesse the
timing and location of inbound convection based on upstream radar
and latest high resolution models. As discussed below,
thunderstorms will move into the region but with only a little
shear /though increasing as front approaches/ so severe threat
will be marginal. Best chance of isolated strong wind gusts will
be in the Central Southern Tier-Finger Lakes though activity will
tend to weaken as it presses east.
Expect a break in rain chances late this afternoon into early
this evening then another wave will approach from the west later
this evening along with a weak surface cold front. Some
destabilization is expected ahead of this system through early
this evening as a very moist low-level airmass advects eastward
ahead of the front with dew points into the lower 70s in most
places. Expect MLCAPE values to reach to near 1000 J/kg by early
this evening in most places with deep layer shear around 25 kts.
These factors along with generally weak large-scale forcing should
produce a few thunderstorms across the area this evening however
the severe risk should be marginal at best with storms struggling
to organize in the weak shear environment. High resolution models
appear to be showing some organized convection over western NY and
northwest Pa early this evening however the convection appears to
either diminish, becoming disorganized or dive southeast across
central Pa as it moves toward our area later in the evening.
After some left-over low clouds early Friday morning Friday looks
to be a nice sunny day with lowering humidity as temperatures
climb to between 80 and 85 degrees with dew points falling through
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build across the northeastern U.S. Friday night
through Saturday, bringing fair skies and gradually warmer
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Another storm system will move through southern Ontario province
on Sunday. An associated front will set off scattered
thunderstorms across NY, with a lesser chance over PA, late Sunday
An upper level ridge will transition to a low amplitude trough
over the northeastern states by mid week, bringing unsettled
weather back to our region.
Temperatures will average above normal through the period.
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Frontal system is inbound as of 00Z and will cause showers and
thunderstorms to sweep west to east across the NY terminals 01Z-
06Z with associated brief restrictions. Activity will tend to
weaken with time, so there is not much as much confidence in
thunder reaching all the way to KRME, though at least showers
will. To the south, KAVP may even be out of reach for showers.
Watch for amendments. Behind the front, a period of MVFR stratus
is expected early in Friday morning, including fuel alt for KRME-
KITH-KELM-KBGM. IFR not out of the question. Post-frontal clouds
will break up towards midmorning, leaving VFR for the remainder of
Friday. Winds will be mainly light SW initially, before veering
W-NW behind the front overnight into Friday.
Friday Night through midday Sunday...VFR except for possible early
morning valley fog KELM.
Late Sunday through Monday...Restrictions possible in
showers/thunderstorms as front passes through.