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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KBGM 300141

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
941 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue overnight with
the most widespread activity in northeast Pennsylvania where heavy
downpours are possible. Drier and more comfortable weather
returns early next week.


930 PM update...Local radar trends show widespread convection
across the northern/western forecast area weakening and becoming
more scattered as diurnal instability wanes. Will continue with
likely pops here for another hour then scattered for the remainder
of the overnight period. To our south moisture from Bonnie is
moving into the far southeast forecast area at this time. Latest
model guidance suggest this activity will remain over northeast
Pennsylvania and into the southern Catskills. Total rainfall in
the southeast counties overnight could approach one inch. Its a
close call for the southern tier but for now the bulk of this
rainfall will remain just to the east. Current forecast handles
this well with just minor adjustments made.

145 PM EDT Update...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop as expected across
central NY this afternoon. A few isolated cells have popped up over
nepa, but for the most part the majority of the activity this
morning/early afternoon has been confined to central ny. The atmos
is very moist with pwat values ranging from 1.5 to 1.6 across the
area and lots of instability is present with sbCAPE values currently
ranging from 2500-3000 j/kg. Similar to yesterday, the steering flow
is very weak. The 850-500MB flow is roughly 20 knots over much of
central NY and northeast PA. The combination of large amounts of
instability,copious amounts of moisture and weak steering flow will
result in an environment conducive for slow moving thunderstorms
which will likely produce heavy downpours. Activity that does
develop today will move towards the NE around 15 to 20 mph. 

So far, no storms have reached severe levels, and do not expect
these showers to produce severe winds or large hail as kinematics do
not look conducive to support severe weather.  Showers are expected
to continue to develop through much of the evening. There may be a
slight lull in precip tonight ahead of the next slug of rain that is
expected to move into nepa late tonight. These thunderstorms are
expected to be heavy as well as this next round of showers will tap
into tropical moisture from Bonnie. Shower associated with tropical
moisture are expected to move into NEPA as early as 04Z on Monday
and may last through 15Z Monday. Some of these showers may push into
central NY over the Western Catskills, but the bulk of the activity
is expected to remain over NEPA. Chance for showers area wide should
diminish by 00Z Tues.

Temps will continue to remain above normal through the period.


3 pm Update...
Weak high pressure at the surface will build across the region
behind the departing cold front Monday night. Conditions aloft
will remain fairly neutral during the day Tuesday as weak ridging
in the upper levels allows for large scale subsidence to induce
quiet weather conditions into Tuesday night.

Overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s are expected Monday
night and Tuesday night. Afternoon highs will top out in the 70s
and lower 80s.


3 pm Update...
Ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the region
Wednesday through Thursday...with quiet weather and highs in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight lows remain steady into the
weekend as the upper 50s and lower 60s.

A fast-moving cold front will track from the eastern Great Lakes
into New England Thursday night through Friday night...producing
another round of showers and storms. A slightly cooler and drier
air mass will move in behind this front late Saturday and Sunday
with highs back into the 70s and lows in the 50s.


Mainly VFR through the period as afternoon/evening convection has
started to dramatically wane and push out of the region. Another
weak wave and moisture from what was Bonnie will help provide the
possibility of showers overnight mainly around 30/04-30/09z across
the CNY region...with better chances across NE PA and Sullivan
County in NY after 30/05z. Lower ceilings/visibility and possible
MVFR conditions. Westerly modest winds after daybreak...with some
models showing some showers as front passes through late morning
and early afternoon. As everything starts to develop in the next
12 hours will be able to pinpoint these features better in the
overnight TAFs.


Monday night-Wednesday...Mostly VFR. Some MVFR/IFR valley fog
is possible during the late night and early morning hours each

Thurs & Fri...Restrictions possible with showers and