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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBGM 180015
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
815 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY. A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY AND BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
815 PM UPDATE...
DRIER AIR HAS OVERTAKEN THE FA, CLEARING OUT SKIES AND ENDING ANY
THREAT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT, MAINLY TO BRING NUMBERS DOWN A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR DRY AIR MASS AND CLEAR SKIES. IF FOG FORMS, BELIEVE
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS NEAR SUNSET.

4 PM UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FORMING A
AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SE ACRS CENTRAL NY. THIS FRONT WAS BEING
PUSHED ALONG BY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES AT THIS
TIME. I HAVE LOWERED POPS TO BELOW SLGHT CHC IN NC NY AND HAVE
SLGHT CHC IN SC NY TO CHC IN NE PA PEAKING ARND 21Z AT THIS POINT.
SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS SOME MIXED LAYER CAPE IN SC PA WITH
CIN OVER NE PA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MORE BREAKS
FORMING IN THE OVERCAST IN NE PA AND THIS SHUD CONTINUE AS THE
MAXIMUM DAY-TIME HEATING PEAKS ARND 20-21Z. MIXED LAYER CAPES
LIKELY WILL CREEP UP BETWEEN 100 AND 200 J/KG IN NE PA. WITH SOME
FORCING I CAN STILL SEE A FEW SHRA POPPING UP ESP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NE PA. I WILL LIKELY LOWER POPS A BIT MORE EVEN IN NE
PA AS PER LATEST LACK OF ACVTY.

FOR TONIGHT...SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER PA/SRN NY
SO WITH LL DRY ADVECTION SKIES SHUD CLR OVERNGT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH DRY ADVECTION SHUD PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION. WE STILL HAVE PATCHY FOG IN OUR DEEPER
VALLEYS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING ON.

FOR SATURDAY A MORE VIGOUROUS SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT TRACKS E
ACRS SRN CANADA. THIS WAVE WAS SEEN PRESENTLY OVER SC CANADA AT
THIS TIME. THERE IS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WITH THIS WAVE AND C
NY AND NE PA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THIS JET WHICH IS
SUBSIDENT BY NATURE. THIS SHUD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP SAT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. YOU CAN SEE IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT OUR
SOUNDING POINTS ALL HAVE A CAPPING INVERSION ABV THE MIXED LAYER.
SO WE SHUD SEE SOME SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS FORM THAT WILL BE CAPPED
OFF ARND 7-8 THOUSAND FEET. THE CUMULUS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT
FARTHER N AND E CLOSER TO THE JET AXIS BUT EVEN IN THESE AREAS IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE STILL WILL BE A CAPPING INVERSION.

AS A RESULT...MOST MODELS ARE DRY IN OUR FORECAST AREA THRU SAT
AFTERNOON AS FRNT PASSES BY. THE 12Z NAM...GFS...WRF NMM...WRF
ARW...RGEM...HI RES CANADIAN AND THE UKMET ALL ARE DRY IN OUR AREA
SAT. ONLY THE 12Z EURO HAS SOME LIGHT QPF SAT LATE MORNING IN OUR
FAR NRN COUNTIES. SINCE WE STILL HAVE NO PRECIP IN GRIDS WILL
FOLLOW ALONG WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY.

MODEL SOUNDING DATA FOR NE PA AND C NY FOR NAM AND GFS SHOW A DEEP
MIXED LAYER SAT PM WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER GROWING TO CLOSE TO
800MB OR 6-7 KFT AGL. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER FROPA WHICH
OCCURS IN C NY AND NE PA BY MID MORNING TO NOON. AFTER THIS FRONT
I SEE GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY TO 30-35 MPH IN NY AND AT LEAST
25-30 MPH IN PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS SATURDAY. WE WILL HAVE A FULL FIRE DISCUSSION AND WILL
BE ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH SOON FOR SATURDAY FOR ALL OF OUR
FORECAST AREA

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S WILL EJECT EASTWARD 
SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS RESPOND BY TURNING SERLY WHICH WILL ADVECT
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NAM AND
GFS 850 MB WINDS ARE BOTH SERLY LATE SUNDAY NGT AND EARLY MONDAY
ON THE ORDER OF 60 KNOTS OR SO. THIS OCCURS IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL PV ADVTN AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. THIS WILL SUPPORT A SLUG OF
RAIN TO COME THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY NGT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH
MORE LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES FOR MONDAY NGT. TIME RAINFALL INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NGT
WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS LASTING THRU MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD
SHOWING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SFC OCCLUSION IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WED NIGHT/THURSDAY NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR WORKING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
PROVIDE FOR UNRESTRICTED VFR NEXT 12 HOURS. STILL MONITORING THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVER WET GROUND...BUT CONFIDENCE RELATIVELY LOW. BEST SPOT FOR
SOME MVFR MIST STILL LOOKS TO BE KRME WHERE LIGHT EASTERLY
DRAINAGE FLOW COULD DEVELOP LATE.

VFR CONTINUES SATURDAY...BUT WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST-NW
ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z-21Z FROPA WITH GUSTS LIKELY 25-30 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT-WED...RESTRICTIONS IN -RA...ESP. SUN NGT-MON NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FINE FUELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY ENOUGH IN BOTH NEW YORK
AND PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF FIRE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 MPH AND 35 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID SPREAD OF ANY OUTDOOR
FIRES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY AS WINDS DIE
DOWN AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INCREASE ABOVE 30 PERCENT. RED FLAG
WARNING LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY 
     EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY 
     EVENING FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...JAB
FIRE WEATHER...