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Area Forecast Discussion

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FXUS61 KBGM 021053
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
653 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED
BY A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY
WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. RIGHT NOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR
ELMIRA, AND A FEW MORE OVER THE TUG HILL GIVE US A GOOD IDEA OF
OUR WEATHER THROUGH NOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME BUT MOST WILL REMAIN
DRY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF DETROIT WILL BE THE
TRIGGER FOR A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
18Z.

FOLLOWING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC/ARW/NMM FOR TIMING, A LINE OR
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA
TOWARD 18Z. IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS FOR THE BULK
OF OUR AREA WILL COME CLOSER TO 21Z AND SHOULD IMPACT A LINE FROM NEAR
UTICA/NORWICH/BINGHAMTON/TOWANDA BACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES.
AFTER 21Z THE LINE SHOULD SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH
NEPA BY 03Z. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE MOST OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDE GOOD MID LEVEL
SHEAR (0-6 KM BULK SHEARS 45+ KTS), WHICH WOULD FAVOR BROKEN OR
SHORT LINES OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHICH IS
PLAYING OUT IN MINIMAL MLCAPES. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER
WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 1,000 J/KG. MEANWHILE THE RUC/ARW/EURO/GFS ALL
SHOW VALUES CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE
THREAT IN THE HWO AND GRIDS WITH GUSTY WIND WORDING, TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY. WE WILL CAREFULLY WATCH THE MESO ANALYSIS THIS
AFTERNOON TO SEE IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A
GREATER CONCERN. LASTLY, WHILE THE STORMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
TODAY, PWATS DO BRIEFLY CLIMB TOWARD 2"! WITH THAT IN MIND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. NO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED ASIDE FROM ANY
STORMS MOVING OVER URBAN AREAS, WHERE RAINFALL RATES CAN ALWAYS
POSE A PROBLEM WHEN THEY GO ABOVE 1.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR.

CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 03Z, WITH DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST AND KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET DURING
THE PERIOD. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE WARM AIR, AS A BUBBLE OF
VERY WARM AIR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SPREADS EAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE AFTER A BRIEF COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WEDNESDAY, WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS NEAR 80, WE WILL REBOUND WELL
INTO THE 80S AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN HOTTER AIR IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. READ MORE BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH WILL FEATURE A WEEKEND
FROPA. MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON FRI WILL GET WELL INTO THE
8OS...WITH HIGHS GNRLY IN THE 65-70 RNG BY SUN/MON. BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FNT ON SAT...WITH COOLER TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER XPCTD FOR SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUE UPDATE... PATCHY MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL THROUGH
13-14Z...WITH SOME LWR CIGS...AND ALSO BR/-SHRA OUT THERE.

FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL...UNDERNEATH A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD. BY LATE AFTN...THOUGH...IT APPEARS THAT A LN OF SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL MARCH ACRS THE RGN...ALG AND JUST AHD OF A COLD FRNTL BNDRY.
FOR NOW...WE'VE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA WITHIN A NARROW
2-HR TIME FRAME AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

THIS EVE...BEHIND THE COLD FRNT...IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS ONCE AGN...SPCLY ACRS CNTRL/ERN NY. WE'VE
INTRODUCED THIS PSBLTY AT KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM ONLY. SOME DRYING IS
EXPECTED LTR TNT...WITH MAINLY VFR RETURNING.  

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KAH/MLJ