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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBGM 180203
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1003 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT SUNSHINE, WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND DRY
WEATHER THAT WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY, MOSTLY IN NEW
YORK. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATED AT 10 PM... CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING NEARLY AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT... BUT
LOWS SHOULD STILL DROP TO AROUND FREEZING AT MANY LOCATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. 

2 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND KEEPING DRY WEATHER OVER THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH CLOUDS BUT THIS WILL NOT AFFECT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING AGAIN INTO THE 20S IN THE DRY AIR. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING NE FROM MI TO QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA FRI EVE. THIS IS FASTER THAN MODELS HAD FIRST
SUGGESTED. THE MOISTURE HAS MUCH DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. SHOWERS HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NRN CWA AND PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE AVP.
SHOWERS MAY COME IN FRI AFTN AND NOT PULL OUT UNTIL EARLY SAT
MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN RIGHT WITH THE FRONT THOUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH ANYWHERE.

COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP MAXES DOWN SATURDAY. 850MB
TEMPS DO NOT GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT AND WAA STARTS AGAIN
SAT AFTN. 

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTH INTO CANADA WILL BE OVER
THE AREA SAT NGT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS
AGAIN. 

SUNDAY BACK TO DEEP SW FLOW SO TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE 60S.
NEXT SYSTEM SLOWER SO DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND
MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A RATHER LOW
AMPLITUDE...FAST MOVING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR
SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SUGGEST SLOWING
UP A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO APPROACH DURING THE SUN-MON TIME
FRAME AND HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK INTO THE MON NITE-TUE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO THEN SETTLE IN FOR MID-WEEK. THEN...BOTH
MODELS HINT AT A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
LATER IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH VFR EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE FROM A S-SELY DIRECTION AT 5-10
KTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY INCREASING TO 5 TO 15 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST
OF KAVP...BUT THIS BEARS MONITORING. SOME VFR MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. 

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS.
  
SAT NGT TO SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
3 PM THU UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
TODAY AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 20-35%), SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE WILL DRY TODAY AND
FRIDAY ENOUGH FOR 10 HOUR FUELS TO BE UNDER 10 PERCENT. 

SO THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WINDS ON ANY
FLAGS. 

SATURDAY AGAIN NOT THAT WINDY AND RH WILL BE HIGHER. SUNDAY WINDS
AGAIN UNDER 20 MPH BUT THE RH WILL BE UNDER 30 PERCENT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB/MSE
FIRE WEATHER...