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Area Forecast Discussion

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FXUS61 KBGM 311052
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0650 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD HOURLY GRIDS
FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES. 

3 AM UPDATE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MOST OF TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

CLOUDS START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. WE MENTION THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS AS EARLY AS THE 8 PM TIME FRAME OVER STEUBEN AND
CHEMUNG COUNTIES HOWEVER MOST LIKELY PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
STORMS MOVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION. WE DO INDICATE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER BASICALLY FROM AROUND THE FINGER LAKES
NORTHWARD HOWEVER THE TIME OF DAY WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE WITH
LIMITED AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY. SHOWERS LOOK TO AFFECT MAINLY
CENTRAL NY OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH BEFORE MAKING MUCH HEADWAY INTO
NE PA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN US AND CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE
TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR CNY/NEPA AS MINOR DISTURBANCES ROTATE
THROUGH THE OVERALL NWLY FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO FIT THIS OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH FOCUS REMAINING DURING THE PRIME DESTABILIZATION
HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. NEAR TERM
MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL
SETUP...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT. SEEMS LIKE THE SAFE
BET IN THE FORECAST IS TO SEE-SAW THE POPS UP AND DOWN BETWEEN
DAYLIGHT AND NIGHTTIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN WHAT IT SHOULD BE FOR THE START OF AUGUST...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WITH READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BRING A CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY... MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... HOWEVER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES DO SEEM TO KEY IN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POP VALUES
ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY HOWEVER THE
OVERALL TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH MID- WEEK
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD...BRINGING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL H5 THICKNESS AND H8 TEMPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. SOME SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER VFR SHOULD STILL
PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TODAY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE. 

.OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR
IN SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...PCF