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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBGM 030734
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
334 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
FRONT MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN THIS MORNING. 
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AS DENSE AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS 
AND SHOULD LIFT ROUGHLY AROUND 14Z. 

A WEAK BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS
MORNING... AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. THIS FEATURE IS ALMOST ALL SFC BASED... AS IN
MINIMAL SUPPORT ALOFT. PLENTY OF SB INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS
COMBINATION MAY RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH NEAR
SUNSET. ATTM... THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
CROSS THE NY BORDER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER NE PA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THEE ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. BELIEVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO NEPA AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. SATURDAY... THE RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME
VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 

3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ONCE AGAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS BELOW ALTERNATE
MINS LIKELY FOR KELM/KITH/KRME BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL EVEN FOR KELM TO GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS
BUT NOT QUITE AS LIKELY AS RECENT MORNINGS. FOR REMAINING SITES,
IFR LIKELY BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR
KSYR/KBGM WITH PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY FOR KAVP. EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO
LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
STILL PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY. 

OUTLOOK... 

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING
FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...PCF