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Lawrenceville Weather

Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBGM 181203
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
703 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures at higher elevations of the Catskills to Poconos will 
still support patchy freezing rain or freezing drizzle early in
the morning, otherwise expect light and scattered rain showers
today, with wet snow mixed in at higher elevations. Showers will
diminish to patchy drizzle tonight, though temperatures could
again dip enough for patchy freezing drizzle for some locations.
High pressure will provide for dry conditions Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
345 AM Update... 
Light freezing rain or freezing drizzle remains an issue prior to
dawn for higher terrain locations well east of I-81. Temperatures
have more-or-less held steady, awaiting passage of a surface
trough connected to a surface low now in eastern Lake Ontario. As
flow flips around to westerly with the passage of the trough this
morning, surface temperatures will actually creep up in response
which will end the ice threat. Thus the freezing rain advisory
from Oneida-Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan of NY and Pike-Wayne in PA
still looks good to expire at 7 AM this morning, though remaining
ice accretion will be very light and limited to mainly higher
elevations.

Rain will diminish to scattered rain showers today behind the
surface trough, though wet snowflakes could mix in at higher
elevations with very little if any accumulation. Another cloudy
day for the area. However, as ridging occurs this evening, the
moisture will become shallow to the point that the coldest
temperatures in the saturated layer will only be about 5-6 degrees
below zero Celsius. This will make ice crystal generation very
difficult. What little precipitation that occurs tonight will
likely be in the form of drizzle. For higher elevation locations
east of I-81, temperatures will actually dip back to around 32
degrees and so patchy freezing drizzle is not out of the question.
In general though further drying of the column will occur late
tonight to eradicate lingering drizzle-freezing drizzle, though
Lake Erie moisture may keep some around areas going roughly along
and north of the NY Thruway even into early Thursday morning.

High pressure will make a brief visit on Thursday to allow dry
weather and perhaps even partial sunshine, especially south of the
Twin Tiers. In the north, moisture will remain trapped under the
subsidence inversion of the high pressure, and thus clouds will be
stubborn. Highs Thursday will be upper 30s-lower 40s, or about
8-10 degrees above normal during what is the climatologically
coldest point of the annual cycle.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure and quiet weather Thursday night will give way to
scattered showers on Friday. A weak surface cyclone spinning
around a central U.S. upper level trough will pull moisture back
into western NY and PA. The rain showers may mix with snow showers
east of I-81, where temperatures will be a few degrees colder than
the rest of the FA.

A lull in the action is forecast for Saturday and Saturday night
when the central U.S. trough retrogrades to the west.

Temperatures will remain much warmer than normal, with highs
Friday and Saturday in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term period is forecast to be mild and rainy.

As the next storm system slowly crawls eastward, Sunday looks to
remain dry and mild. Unseasonably mild temperatures in the 40s are
predicted.

Early Monday, the central U.S. trough will close off over MS/AL
while a large surface cyclone spins over the eastern conus.
Copious moisture is progged to race northward into NY/PA, setting
a stage for steady rains Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak flow and abundant low level moisture will keep widespread
IFR/Alternate minimum conditions with drizzle and fog over the
terminals through the mid morning, as a slow moving low pressure
system remains in the vicinity; even around airport mins for KBGM.
After 16Z as flow becomes west/northwest 5-8 knots at KELM-KAVP
conditions will improve to alternate required, but improvement
for remainder of terminals will only manage to get up to IFR
during the day. KITH-KRME-KBGM are likely to keep at least IFR CIG
restrictions even through most of the coming night. 

OUTLOOK...

Early Thursday...Lingering ceiling restrictions.

Late Thursday through Friday...VFR.

Friday night and Saturday...Chance for rain and associated
restrictions; possibly mixed with snow for KRME.

Sunday...Generally VFR conditions expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP