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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBGM 241037
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
637 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EASTWARD TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR AND BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLND CST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS NEXT S/WV
MOVS INTO THE CNTRL GTLAKES TDA. CLDS THIS MRNG WITH SOME -RA OR
DZ ACRS ERN ZONES. CLEARING XPCTD TO PROGRESS STEADILY BUT SLOWLY
EWD TDA. ATTM THINK THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLDS WILL BE NEAR THE RT
81 CORRIDOR IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. WRN CATSKILLS PRBLY WON'T SEE
BREAKS UNTIL LATE TDA. MAXES IN THE U50S TO NEAR 60 WRN ZONES
WHERE MORE SS WILL OCCUR...L50S ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SRN CATSKILLS
WHERE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST LONGEST. NW WINDS GNRLY 10-20 KTS.

WE'LL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TNGT BEFORE CLDS INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE NXT S/WV LATE TNGT DUE TO WAA AND WEAK ISEN
LIFT. MINS GNRLY FROM THE U30 TO L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VARYING AMTS OF CLDS ON SATURDAY DUE TO MRNG WAA...THEN SOME
IMPRVMNT PSBL IN THE AFTN BEFORE MORE CLDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY
AS THE CDFNT APRCHS. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE L60S ACRS MANY AREAS. CHC POPS LATE IN DAY FOR
-SHRA FROM STEUBEN INTO ONEIDA COUNTY...WITH CHC POPS MIGRATING
SEWD ON SAT EVNG TO COVER MUCH OF CNTRL NY. GOOD DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT ALOT OF MSTR. WEAK LAKE INFLUENCE COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER S/WV KEEPS CHC POPS ACRS FAR NRN ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO
SUN EVNG WHERE CLDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...WITH PC SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. BLUSTERY NW WINDS XPCTD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE... 
FORECAST ADJUSTED TOWARDS 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. TREND IN MODEL
CONSENSUS /WITH GFS FASTEST...ECMWF MIDDLE...AND GEM SLOWEST/ IS
FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE WITHIN THE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. POPS TWEAKED ACCORDINGLY. AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...AS ALREADY MENTIONED BELOW WE BRIEFLY GET QUITE
WARM...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY A GOOD DOZEN OR SO DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. A FEW LOWER ELEVATION SPOTS MAY EVEN TOUCH 70. BEHIND
THE FRONT...EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER THURSDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE... 
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND QUICKLY 
LOSING INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. AS EXPECTED CONDITIONS ACTUALLY
IMPROVED LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS DRIER AIR HAS BEEN MOVING IN AND
ERODING WHAT REMAINS OF CLOUD COVER ON OUTER PERIPHERY OF EXITING 
SYSTEM. KAVP COULD STILL HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIG...OTHERWISE JOINING
THE OTHER TERMINALS IN A QUICK SCATTERING OUT THIS MORNING AS
VERY DRY AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKE OVER. NW WINDS 7-10 KTS
WITH GUSTS 15-19 KTS TODAY...WILL DIMINISHING AND BACKING INTO
TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF AN
MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL MANGE FORM TOWARDS DAWN UNDER SUBSIDENCE 
INVERSION FOR SOME TERMINALS...ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE 
VALLEY FOG AT KELM.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP