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Lawrenceville Weather

Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBGM 210544
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1244 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and clear sky will only gradually give way to
increasing clouds. A front will bring some light rain showers
tonight. Clouds and a slight chance of showers may linger into
Wednesday, but temperatures will remain well above normal into
the weekend. The chance of rainR will increase Friday into
Saturday as a moist system moves into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
6 PM update...Very minor adjustments were made to early evening
temperatures based on latest obs. Otherwise forecast on track with
no changes. 

300 PM Update... 
High pressure and subsidence of dry air mass have contributed to
a bright sunny springlike afternoon with temperatures mainly in
the 40s, or roughly 5 to 10 degrees above climatology. However,
with clear sky and low dewpoints this evening comes very quick
radiational cooling. Lows tonight will range from roughly upper
teens to upper 20s, and most of the way there will be realized
before midnight and our typical cold spots such as Elmira,
Norwich, Sidney, and Oneonta may even get into mid teens.

Large wave out west is in process of shearing out to separate
southern stream and northern stream components. Northern surface
low is ejecting into Canada while deepening, and will reach all
the way to near Hudson Bay by Tuesday afternoon. As is typical for
this type of Pacific-origin system with a trailing occluding front
distant from its parent low, the resulting rain showers for our
region continues to delay to the point that it now appears
Tuesday will be almost completely dry despite increasing clouds.
Highs Tuesday will be mainly 40s though lower elevations of
Central Southern Tier to Finger Lakes could easily get around 50
degrees courtesy of a downsloping and increasing southerly wind.

Wave aloft is then anticipated to move across the area from 5pm
WNW to midnight ESE, with a batch of rain showers. Wave aloft then
moves on late in the night, yet shallower moisture appears likely
to be trapped in the low levels as well as spotty rain showers.
All told only about five to fifteen hundredths of an inch of rain,
with lows of mid 30s to lower 40s Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 pm update... Dissipating surface boundary, associated with
the Pacific-origin system mentioned in the above section, could
still produce a fair amount of cloudiness on Wednesday and perhaps
a few light showers. However, there is model disagreement on
this, and even in the most pessimistic scenarios, most of the day
will be rain-free. Temperatures will remain quite mild, with much
of CNY/NEPA into the 50s.

Wednesday night and Thursday should remain very mild, despite the
approach of another surface boundary from the northwest. A
somewhat better chance of showers could reach our lake plain,
southern Tug Hill, and Mohawk Valley zones by later in the day
Thursday. For the rest of the area, it will be primarily rain-
free, under partly-mostly cloudy skies. 

Our NEPA zones could well reach the 60s Thursday afternoon,
especially valley locales.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 pm update... A strong upper trough and intensifying surface
cyclone will be our main player through Saturday, as they track
from the upper Midwest across Ontario and Quebec. The proximity of
an east-west oriented boundary near the region Thursday night-
Friday, emanating from the main surface low, should bring at
least scattered showers. A better chance of showers, and perhaps
even some thunder, is expected later Friday night and Saturday,
ahead of and along the trailing cold front as it sweeps eastward.
This front will be fast moving, but there is some potential for
fairly deep moisture and at least a brief period of heavy
rainfall. Details will hopefully become clearer in the next few
days. 

Behind the front, temperatures should at least temporarily return
to seasonal levels Sunday-Monday, with expected highs in the 30s-
lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR conditions will continue for much of the TAF period. A front
will approach after 00Z bringing mvfr ceilings and visibilities in
rain showers through 06Z. Light winds this morning will become
around 10 knots out of the west ahead of front today and this
evening. 

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday...MVFR Post-frontal ceilings into early Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...VFR except for possible
spotty rain showers and associated brief restrictions Thursday.

Friday through Saturday...Restrictions from rainy frontal system.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PCF
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM/MDP/PCF