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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBGM 220545
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE COAST OF MARYLAND TOMORROW
EVENING...THEN NEAR MAINE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS...COOL
AIR... AND PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND SYNOPTIC LOW THIS SHIFT.
SHOWERS ARE LINING UP AS FORECAST OVER THE SERN FA, WITH LESSER
POPS TO THE NORTHWEST FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE. 

UPDATED THE NEAR TERM T/TD GRIDS AND THE POPS TO BETTER FIT
CURRENT SCENARIO AND SHORT TERM MESOSCALE RUNS.

4 PM UPDATE...
SWIRL CLEARLY VSBL IN THE RADAR MOSAIC OVER WRN PA MARKS THE CNTR
OF THE UPR LOW. NAM FCST A NEARLY DUE SOUTH MVMT OVRNGT BRING THE
CNTR OVER ERN VA BY 12Z WED. SFC LOW IS NOT YET WELL DVLPD...SO
UPR LOW DEEPENS SLOWLY. THIS IN TURN LIMITS THE ELY INFLOW.
SO...WHILE THERE/S PLENTY OF MOISTURE ARND...LIMTED INSTABILITY
AND A MORE SLY THAN ELY FLOW SHD LIMIT THE PCPN OVRNGT...AS IT HAS
SO FAR TODAY.

XPCT CONTD LGT SHWRS AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES OVRNGT...AND ONLY A
LIMITED DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY PTRN CONTS WITH THE CLSD LOW SLOWLY DEEPENING AND DRFTG
NEWRD OFF THE ATLANTIC CST. WED ACTUALLY LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AS THE
DVLPG ELY FLOW HAS NOT YET PULLED THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BACK TO THE WEST AND INTO THE FCST AREA. AS THE LOW
CONTS TO DEEPEN...PERSISTANT FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING HIGHER
POPS AND QPF TO THE AREA. ATTM LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
HEAVIER RAIN MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI AS
THE LOW KIND OF BOTTOMS OUT NEAR CAPE COD.

LTR FRI...BLOCKING RDG TO THE NORTH FNLY BEGINS TO MVE OUT
ALLOWING THE LOW TO ACCELERATE TO THE NE. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME
DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE WRN AND SRN ZONES LATE IN THE PD. 

TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL GNRLY BE A BIT BLO NRML DURING THE
DAY...BUT MILDER AT NGT. THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS ON AVG TO EVEN BE
SLGTLY ABV NRML.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. OVERALL...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR XPCTD THRU THE FCST PD. AT
RME...SUGGESTIONS THAT BRIEF PDS OF VFR WILL BE PSBL DUE TO
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR AND DOWNSLOPING DUE TO NE WINDS. LATER
TDA AS THE FLOW BCMS MORE NRLY TO NWLY...XPCT IFR/MVFR TO BCM RE-
ESTABLISHED. ELSEWHERE OVER CNTRL NY...CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY BLO
AT MINS THIS MRNG BEFORE POTNL IMPRVMNT TO MVFR LATER THIS MRNG
AND AFTN. AT AVP...MVFR XPCTD TO PREVAIL. BEST CHC FOR -SHRA APPEARS
TO BE AT BGM AND AVP THIS MRNG...WITH -SHRA BECMG MORE WDPSRD BY
LATE AFTN AND SPCLY TNGT. NELY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING NRLY 10
KTS BY MID MORNING AND NNW 10-20 KTS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF