FXUS61 KBGM 261921
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
321 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016
High pressure off the east coast will continue the very warm but
dry weather for our area today into this evening. A low pressure
trough will move through the region Monday and Monday evening with
a few showers and storms. A cold front will cross the region
Tuesday with a chance for more showers and thunderstorms
especially east of the I-81 corridor.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridge of high pressure will track off the east coast this evening
with clear mild weather. Low pressure tracking east across Ontario
toward Quebec will spin a weak surface trough east across the
Great Lakes toward NY and Pennsylvania on Monday. Clouds will
increase ahead of this system early Monday morning with scattered
showers expected along the front from mid-morning across the
Finger Lakes through the afternoon from I-81 into the Catskills
and Poconos. Large-scale forcing with this system is not strong as
the main mid-level short wave energy will be well to the west over
the western Great Lakes. The NAM which is often overdone with
instability shows a narrow ribbon of 1000 j/kg MLCAPE along the
surface trough over central NY / central Pa Monday afternoon.
Meanwhile the GFS shows little to no instability. High resolution
models indicate scattered convection across the area during the
afternoon with a general weakening trend as the system progresses
east toward the Catskills. Based on all of this think that high
chance pops from 40-50 pct should cover things for late Monday
morning through the afternoon. Given the potential for a ribbon of
modest instability along the trough have also included the mention
of scattered thunder. Have hedged temperatures just above MOS
guidance... clouds should keep highs a bit below today's levels
but still expect most places to reach 80.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Early in the period, area will be in southerly flow with high pressure
off the east coast with a cold front located over southern Ontario
and an upper level trough farther north across the Great Lakes.
Weak pre-frontal trough may result in a few showers or storms
lasting into Monday evening but otherwise Monday night should be
mainly precipitation free but fairly mild and muggy with lows
mainly in the mid 60s.
For Tuesday, the cold front will advance NW to SE from western NY
across the CWA. Some timing differences exist as the GFS is faster
than the NAM with the GEM and EC in between. This will have an
impact on the thunderstorm potential associated with the front.
GFS also has lower max ML CAPES than the NAM which is typical. GFS
has max ML CAPES 500-1000 j/kg with NAM showing 1000-2000 j/kg.
Thinking is that with front advancing east best chances for
development of afternoon storms will be over eastern portions of
the CWA from I-81 east where we have indicated likely POPs. Worth
noting, with upper trough and associated jet advancing east into
area 0-6 km shear increases to near 40 knots by late day and 1000
j/kg of ML CAPE seems reasonable in warm sector ahead of front.
However mid level lapse rates look to be under 6 C/km so this
would act to limit severe threat. In any event will have to
monitor closely as some storms could produce stronger winds. Temps
will be cooler Tuesday due to cloud cover and showers but the air
ahead of the front will be quite muggy.
The cold front will be through the area by Tuesday night with
cooler and drier conditions to follow for Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be in the 50s with highs
Wednesday in the 70s. Some isolated showers may linger into
Wednesday from the Catskills north to Oneida County due to upper
level trough with otherwise dry weather under clearing skies.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
In the big picture, overall large scale pattern for late week into
next weekend will shift more toward upper level troughiness over
the northeast which will result in temps generally being a bit
cooler than they have been with also increasing chances for
To begin the period, surface high will bring dry weather under
mainly clear skies for Wednesday night and Thursday. Temperatures
will be cool Wednesday night with lows mainly in the low to mid
50s followed by highs rebounding to around 80 for Thursday. Beyond
this time, cold front and associated upper level trough looks to
bring the chance of showers and storms by Friday. The chance of
showers looks to linger at least into early next weekend due to
upper level trough. Early indications are for temperatures next
weekend to be near to slightly below average.
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Mainly clear skies
through this evening... then some mid and high level clouds will
increase ahead of a weak frontal system on Monday. Scattered
showers are expected on Monday with isolated thunder possible.
Winds will be south-southwest at around 10 kts this afternoon
decreasing to less than 10 kts tonight then increasing to around
10 kts on Monday.
Monday-Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and associated brief
restrictions as slow moving cold front moves through.