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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBGM 231100
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
700 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE...MINOR TWEEKS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS WITH GIST OF FCST
UNCHANGED. PREV BLO...

UPR LOW OFF THE JERSEY SHORE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FCST
AREA TDA AND TNGT. SYSTEM WILL SPIN BANDS OF RAIN INTO ERN ZONES
TDA...WHILE WRN ZONES (STEUBEN/YATES) MAY FLIRT WITH PS SKIES THIS
AFTN. IN ANY EVENT...CAT POPS ERN ZONES TDA...DROPPING OFF TO LOW
CHC POPS ACRS THE WEST WHERE SOME -SHRA COULD MIGRATE WWD INTO
THIS AREA THIS AFTN. POPS SLOWLY DCRS TNGT FROM W TO E AS LOW
SLOWLY MOVS AWAY. NRLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS TDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING 
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE... 
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS BIG ENOUGH TO THE POINT
THAT OUR TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND IT...SCT -SHRA AS WELL
EXCEPT FOR KITH-KELM. CIGS AT FUEL ALT MVFR KAVP-KITH-KBGM
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO HIGHER END MVFR...OTHER TERMINALS MAINLY 
HIGHER END MVFR. KAVP-KBGM PROBABLY DIPPING BACK TO FUEL ALT MVFR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERS GENERALLY SCATTERING OUT BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS. PERSISTENT FUEL ALT MVFR FOR KAVP. WINDS 
NNW TO NW 8-14 KTS...GUSTING 18-22 KTS...THEN BACKING AND
DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP