000
FXUS61 KBOX 200840
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
427 AM EDT SAT MAR 20 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE DAY OF DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER TODAY THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT
SPOTTY SHOWERS SUNDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ANOTHER MOSUNNY AND WARM DAY TODAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING S FROM NORTHERN NEW ENG. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SWD
INTO N ZONES LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING POSSIBLY REACHING THE MASS
PIKE BY 00Z WHICH MAY LIMIT WARMTH A BIT NW HIGHER TERRAIN AS 850 MB
COOLS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL UNSEASONABLY MILD. SOME CU
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTH.
IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND
COASTAL PLAIN PER 2M TEMPS...WITH LOWER 70S LIKELY AWAY FROM
IMMEDIATE S COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN 60S. WEST FLOW
NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG AND IT IS POSSIBLE A WEAK SEABREEZE COULD
DEVELOP AT BOS AND PORTIONS OF E COASTAL MA. SUNY MM5 HINTS AT THIS
SO INDICATED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS E COASTAL MA BUT CONFIDENCE IN
SEABREEZE IS LOW.
NO RECORDS TODAY AS RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE COAST BY LATE TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM N TO S BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY
BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS N ZONES AS SW FLOW AT 850 MB
OVERRUNS THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS. WE HAVE LOW CHC POPS NW MA AND S
NH.
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY AS ELY FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE REGION
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS E COASTAL MA
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WHERE TEMPS MAY NOT GET OUT OF
THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY 50S TO AROUND 60 LOWER CT VALLEY.
THE FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE BACK NWD INTO SNE BUT THINK IT WILL GET
HUNG UP S OF THE COAST THROUGH SUN. OVERRUNNING OF SHALLOW
BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR WHERE BEST
MOISTURE AND HAVE CHC POPS HERE...BUT RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST
THERE COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. SHALLOW COOL AIR IS TOUGH TO ERODE
SOMETIMES...ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHILE MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WILL LIKELY BE DRY...WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD
RESULT IN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/WESTERN
ZONES. WILL RUN WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR REGION AND SHOW
THE HIGHEST IN OUR NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY
ALSO BE AREAS OF FOG WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN
THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.
MONDAY...
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN RESPONSE...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE. THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST
BUT ENOUGH LIFT IS AVAILABLE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IS BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE GFS
MODEL APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN LIFTING OUT THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE REGION. THE NAM APPEARS MORE REALISTIC WITH ITS SUPERIOR
LOW LEVEL RESOLUTION AND ALSO HAS AGREEMENT FROM THE ECMWF. FEEL
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE. THEREFORE...LEANED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE COOLER MET
MOS. HIGHS NORTH OF THE PIKE SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE...THERE MAY BE SOME UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S DEPENDING HOW FAR THE FRONT ENDS UP LIFTING.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DEEP CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION LIFTING NORTHEAST SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE BENCHMARK.
WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING SOMETIME
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK. WILL GO WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MUCH OF THIS TIME AND DO EXPECT THE RAIN TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. EASTERLY INFLOW IS GOOD FOR A TIME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT TO THE MAGNITUDE OF WHAT WAS OBSERVED LAST WEEKEND. WHILE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT COMPARE TO WHAT FELL LAST WEEKEND...STILL
EXPECT TO SEE 1 TO 2.50 AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION. RIVER LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND SEVERAL ARE STILL IN FLOOD ACROSS OUR REGION.
WITH THAT SAID...THERE CERTAINLY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED RIVER
AND STREAM FLOODING WITH THIS RAINFALL AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY.
THERE ALSO IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AS A BIT
OF SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. THIS IS ONLY SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS MODEL AND OUR OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS ARE A BIT TOO WARM FOR
THAT TO HAPPEN. THEREFORE...THINK ITS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS
POINT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS TIME.
FRIDAY...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD THREATEN THE REGION WITH A BIT OF RAIN
OR EVEN WET SNOW IF IT TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST. THAT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO WILL JUST INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IT DOES LOOKING LIKE THE WEATHER
WILL FINALLY BE TURNING A BIT CHILLIER.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. SOME CU WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.
BOS...THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A BRIEF SEABREEZE DEVELOPING...BUT MORE
LIKELY OCCURRENCE IS WEST WIND AROUND 10 KT DURING THE DAY
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR BUT BKN SC WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM
N TO S BEHIND A COLD FRONT. NE WIND UP TO 10 KT DEVELOPING AT BOS AFT
06Z. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N OF THE PIKE.
SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS IN AREAS OF SC...BUT LOW PROB OF MVFR
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE PIKE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY
INTERIOR.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE TIMES
OF MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG
PATCHES.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN LOW CLOUDS/RAIN AND NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 35 KNOTS ON THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY...
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR-IFR CEILINGS EARLY IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SW WINDS 10-15 KTS AND FLAT
SEAS. SW WINDS BECOME NE LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. NAM SHOWS 975 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE
FRONT WHICH MAY BRING A BRIEF PULSE OF NEAR SCA GUSTS LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY SUN...ESPECIALLY MASS BAY AND EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
OTHERWISE E/NE WINDS 10-15 KTS SUN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT
EASTERN WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...STALLED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
DRAPED ACROSS OUR WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS THOUGH SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...AREAS OF FOG MAY AFFECT THE
WATERS RESULTING IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUST DEVELOPING ALONG WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST 15 FEET OVER THE EASTERN OUTER-WATERS.
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE STORM SYSTEM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW OF THE MAIN STEM RIVERS IN NE MA SHOULD DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE
TODAY. THE CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AND CONCORD RIVER AT LOWELL
WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE SEE FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE SPECIFIC
INFORMATION ABOUT THE STATUS OF INDIVIDUAL RIVERS.
&&
.COASTAL FLOODING...
SPLASHOVER AND POSSIBLY SOME POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE TIME/S OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MA COAST. IN ADDITION...FURTHER BEACH EROSION IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE ON NORTH AND EAST FACING BEACHES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK
