000
FXUS64 KFWD 160439 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1139 PM CDT MON MAR 15 2010
.AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY SHOWN ON RADAR WITH THE LEADING
EDGE EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM JACKSBORO TO WACO TO CAMERON.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND DUE TO A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE. AFTER ANALYZING
AREA OBSERVATIONS...THE RAIN LINE EXTENDS FROM GRAHAM TO COMANCHE
TO GATESVILLE AND IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST. EVEN AT THIS
HOUR...THE RAIN IS FALLING OUT OF VFR BASES. THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN WEST TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BRINGING THE BEST DYNAMICS TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
AREAS OF THE CWA. AM FEELING LESS CONFIDENT THAT MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL FALL IN THE IMMEDIATE METROPLEX AND WILL ONLY SHOW -RA FROM
8Z /3AM/ TO 12Z /7AM/. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...IF RAIN IS HEAVIER IN
INTENSITY...CIGS MAY LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORIES...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT TAF.
WACO WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW AND BEST DYNAMICS/LIFT.
PRECIP SHOULD START TO REACH THE GROUND FROM VFR CIGS SHORTLY
AFTER 6Z OR 1AM. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH CIGS GOING MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AS RAIN EXITS THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MID-DAY.
85/NH
&&
.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK BUT DID MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POP/WX
PARAMETERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND BEST LOW-MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. STILL A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA BUT PRIMARILY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN IN THIS REGION AS
WELL. HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS FOR THE METROPLEX AND NORTHEASTWARD
WHERE THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED BY SOME
DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AIDING IN EVAPORATION/VIRGA. HAVE
INCREASED POPS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CWA...WHERE A STEADY LIGHT
RAIN IS LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON MAR 15 2010/
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREA OF RAIN
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH AREAS OF RAIN EXPANDING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT...SO WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A MEAN TROF BEHIND
TODAYS SYSTEM. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION. WEATHER REMAINS PRETTY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK THEN ANOTHER POWERFUL SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE WESTERN US
LATE FRIDAY. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THIS UPPER LOW WILL SWING A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS
BY SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW...THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE SYSTEM DOES LOOK STRONG AND THERE APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE
SOME 20/30 POPS IN ALONG THE FRONT...AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY AS WE
GET CLOSER.
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...THEN WE WILL SEE
A WARMUP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 51 59 44 67 40 / 40 30 10 0 0
WACO, TX 50 57 43 66 37 / 80 70 20 0 0
PARIS, TX 47 57 43 60 38 / 10 20 10 0 0
DENTON, TX 48 56 40 65 36 / 40 30 10 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 48 58 42 64 37 / 20 20 10 0 0
DALLAS, TX 51 59 45 66 41 / 40 30 10 0 0
TERRELL, TX 49 60 42 64 38 / 20 30 10 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 50 59 44 65 39 / 50 50 20 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 50 57 43 66 38 / 90 80 20 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
85/92
