000
FXUS62 KFFC 062002
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
349 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2008
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY PART OF A SHARP NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ALL MODELS HAVE THIS
LONGWAVE TROUGH FLATTENING OUT TOMORROW...BUT AS IT DOES SO A
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EJECTED OUR DIRECTION. MODEL DISCREPANCIES STILL
EXIST...BUT MAINLY ON TIMING AS THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST OF ALL
MODELS. HOWEVER...12Z ECMWF JUST COMING IN IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS THAN THE SLOWER NAM. DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS ON
TIMING...WHICH STARTS BRINGING RAINFALL INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF A DELAY IN ONSET OF
RAIN...AS STRONG BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MUST
FIRST BE OVERCOME BEFORE RAINFALL CAN BEGIN. AS FOR THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...MODELS STILL INDICATING AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE AND
AROUND -2 LIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE
CONTINUATION OF MENTIONING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...BEST
MOISTURE WILL STAY NEAR THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE SET UP NEAR THE FLORIDA BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING THE
BEST GULF MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. ALSO...LAPSE RATES WILL BE
MARGINAL AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 30 KTS SO SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. IF THE WARM FRONT CAN MAKE IT UP INTO CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AS GFS IS INDICATING HAPPENING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY INCREASE.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY GO OF IT. FEEL
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WON`T START COMING IN UNTIL TOMORROW
MORNING...SO BASICALLY WENT WITH A FORECAST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE...EXCEPT IN THE EAST WHERE IT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A
CLEAR NIGHT AND THEREFORE COOL YET AGAIN. AFTER THAT...EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...THEN RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN...SO STUCK CLOSE TO THE COOLER MAV...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEATHER AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS TRYING
TO CUT THIS SYSTEM OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...WITH THE GFS
CONTINUING TO MOVE IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
NAM WANT TO LET THE H5 LOW LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY.
IF GFS IS CORRECT...THEN WE WILL BE DRY FROM FRIDAY ON...WHILE
ECMWF WOULD LIKE TO HOLD ON TO SOME RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE H5 PATTERN...WHICH WILL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS CENTERED UNDER A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN INTO NEXT WEEK.
FRONT THAT WAS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY IS NOW
PEGGED TO DO SO ON THURSDAY...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES THAT FAR OUT
LEFT THE EXTENDED FORECAST FROM THE WEEKEND ON OUT RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 54 79 61 67 57 / 0 10 50 80 70
ATLANTA 60 76 64 68 59 / 5 20 70 80 60
BLAIRSVILLE 48 73 55 62 56 / 0 10 60 90 70
CARTERSVILLE 53 79 62 67 56 / 0 20 80 80 50
COLUMBUS 61 75 67 74 60 / 10 40 80 70 30
GAINESVILLE 55 77 60 64 58 / 0 10 60 90 70
MACON 58 80 64 75 61 / 5 20 50 70 60
ROME 53 78 63 68 57 / 0 20 90 80 50
PEACHTREE CITY 54 77 62 69 54 / 5 20 70 80 50
VIDALIA 60 82 64 75 65 / 0 10 20 50 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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