000
FXUS64 KAMA 172030
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
330 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED IN CENTRAL TX.
HAVE SEEN WIDELY SCT TSRA DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY ASSOCIATED
WITH S/WV DROPPING SOUTH AHEAD OF UPPER LOW. MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS
EVENING WILL BE HOW LONG PRECIP HANGS AROUND THE PANHANDLES. SPC
RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEG C/KM.
WEAK LIFT IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW AND GIVEN THE ABOVE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF ISOLD TSRA ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
EXPECT PRECIP TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR LATER
TONIGHT WITH LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES INDICATE
CLEARING FURTHER UPSTRAM IN KS. LOW TEMSP TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S EXCEPT UPPER 40S IN TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS.
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA SUN AND WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS...FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SETUP WILL PROMOTE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND COUPLED WITH
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY
ESPECIALLY MON WITH 850 HPA TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR 30 DEG C AND
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SURFACE TROUGH AND FAIRLY STRONG VORT MAX WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MON AND WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD
FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE THROUGH THE AREA TUE. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS WIND SHIFT WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TUE. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS TEMPS
REBOUND BACK WELL INTO THE 90S WED.
THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF IN THE
EXTENDED AS LARGE TROUGH SET TO PUSH SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. GIVEN THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA AND CONTINUED SRLY FLOW AT THE SFC...
RAISED TEMPS A LITTLE THU. GFS AND ECMWF START TO SUGGEST PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING NEXT WEEKEND BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW.
CLK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL FOR SOME TIME AS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESULT IN
HOT TEMPS AND DRYING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE WED AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE.
CLK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 52 91 57 96 60 / 20 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 47 93 55 96 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 51 89 57 93 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 59 93 62 98 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 51 94 56 98 58 / 20 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 50 91 56 96 57 / 20 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 55 91 61 98 62 / 10 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 49 92 53 94 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 53 93 57 97 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 49 89 56 95 56 / 20 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 50 92 58 97 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 59 90 62 96 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 54 92 60 98 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 55 93 61 98 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
11/05
