000
FXUS62 KFFC 180930 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EDT THU MAR 18 2010
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW HAS PULLED UP NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE STATE THIS
MORNING. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK (WEST) SIDE WILL HINDER THE
LOWS PROGRESSION EASTWARD TODAY... EXPECTING CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. IT APPEARS THE ENERGY WILL
SWING AROUND THE LOWS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND HELP PULL THE SYSTEM
EASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN
TO FILTER IN FROM THE NW AND POSSIBLY ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER A BIT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING A LOT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON
SATELLITE... SO UNCERTAIN JUST HOW MUCH SUN WILL BE ABLE TO PEAK
THROUGH. WILL PLAY IT SAFE AND LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DRIFT THE
UPPER LOW FURTHER OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS FOR MOST AREAS. ENJOY.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH
REGARDS TO THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO KICK OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH
TIMING AND TRACK... SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD ITS SOLUTION
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO PUSH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY EVENING. STILL
SEEING VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY...BUT A 40KT LLJ...ALONG WITH
MODERATE UPPER SUPPORT AND FRONTAL FORCING...ALL DURING AFTERNOON
HEATING SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER AHEAD AND ALONG
THE FRONT. STILL NOT EXPECTING SEVERE... BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR
SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE IF UPDRAFTS CAN GET STRONG ENOUGH.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING ABOUT 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEFORE IT EXISTS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS MAY
LINGER EARLY ON MONDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK.
39
&&
.AVIATION...
CIGS REMAINING VFR THIS MORNING DESPITE GUIDANCE WANTING TO DROP
CIGS TO MVFR. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE LOWERING OF THE
CIGS AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
SLIDE EAST...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS WELL. EXPECT MOSTLY
VFR STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10KT...WITH
SOME BRIEF MVFR STRATUS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND SKIES
CLEARING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 64 42 74 43 72 / 20 5 0 5 10
ATLANTA 61 44 70 48 69 / 20 5 0 5 10
BLAIRSVILLE 58 38 67 38 64 / 20 0 0 5 10
CARTERSVILLE 61 37 72 38 73 / 20 0 0 5 10
COLUMBUS 63 44 72 46 72 / 20 5 0 5 10
GAINESVILLE 61 43 70 46 69 / 20 5 0 5 10
MACON 64 42 73 43 73 / 20 5 0 5 10
ROME 61 39 71 39 71 / 20 0 0 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 62 37 71 38 71 / 20 5 0 5 10
VIDALIA 65 46 74 46 75 / 20 5 0 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
39/TDP
