000
FXUS63 KMPX 160732
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
232 AM CDT TUE MAR 16 2010
.DISCUSSION...
IT APPEARS WE WILL FINALLY BE RIDDING OURSELVES OF THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WHICH HAS PLAGUED MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE PAST
WEEK OR SO. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES
SHOW A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED VORT MAXES CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE STATE... WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE JUST BEGINNING TO
ENTER THE WESTERN EDGE OF MINNESOTA. IT IS A FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH
WITH AN EQUALLY SHARP RIDGE BEHIND IT. THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT
APPEARS TO BE DOING A GOOD JOB OF CLEARING OUT THE CLOUD COVER...
SO IT WILL JUST BE A WAITING GAME FOR OUR AREA AS THE RIDGE FOLDS
OVER ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN IN THE AREA OF WEAK FORCING AND DEEPER SATURATION AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TODAY...
BUT DON/T EXPECT IT TO LINGER INTO TONIGHT. THE NAM... GFS... AND
ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SO GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH
THEIR GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERALL... THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A SCOURING OUT OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS... THEN A STEADY WARMING WITH CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER WEATHER FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS SOUTH
OF THE AREA.
FOR TODAY... IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA AND THE WEAK FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN... MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT.
DNVA WILL ARRIVE IN EARNEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
WHICH SHOULD WORK TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULDN/T RISE TOO DRAMATICALLY
GIVEN THE CLOUDS... ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
COULD JUMP UP QUICKLY BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE... SO KEPT WARMEST
READINGS IN THAT AREA. RIDGING WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH A GOOD SURGE OF WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
LOOKING TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE INVERSION ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
SHARPER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS... SO IT MAY NOT WARM AS
DRAMATICALLY AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
HOWEVER... WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP SOME MECHANICAL MIXING
COULD HELP WITH THE THERMAL MIXING... SO BUMPED UP HIGHS A BIT AND
WOULDN/T BE SHOCKED IF THINGS WOUND UP WARMER STILL.
CONTINUED TO KEEP THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW... SINCE MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK ANEMIC. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD
STILL MANAGE TO WARM UP NICELY... WITH THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION
NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. DIDN/T MAKE ANY SUBSTANTIVE
CHANGES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... WITH SOME CHANCE FOR PCPN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE THE TIGHTENING
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE BULK OF ANY PCPN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA... WITH
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER
IN PLACE ACROSS MINNESOTA.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS MN TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND BRING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
KAXN...WHERE ONE QUARTER MILE VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. THE MOST
OPTIMISTIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KEAU...WHERE PREDOMINATE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. CLEARING IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...BUT LOWER CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 10Z. THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CIGS WILL BE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
TRH/LS
