000
FXUS65 KABQ 172059
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
259 PM MDT SAT MAY 17 2008
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...CHARTS ALOFT SHOWING RIDGE EXTENDING FORM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AS TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS FLOPPED POSITIVE ACROSS
THE HEART OF TEXAS AND ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. NEW MEXICO IN BROAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE DOWNSTREAM NOSE OF THE RIDGE...AND WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON HAVE TOUCHED OFF A BROAD AREA OF
SOUTHBOUND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SURFACE MAP UNREMARKABLE...WITH BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS NEW MEXICO
TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
MODELS...GOOD CONSENSUS BUILDING RIDGE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH NORTH PACIFIC SYSTEM MAKING
LANDFALL OVER WESTERN CANADA ON MONDAY AND THEN DIGGING RAPIDLY
TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY WEDNESDAY. GFS CLOSING OFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY AND KEEPING
THIS FEATURE STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF WITH SUNSET...AND SPEEDY SOUTHBOUND MOVEMENT HAS KEPT
RAINFALLS MODEST AS THEY PASS THROUGH. EXPECTING MOST ACTIVITY TO
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
INTO THE EVENING. RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN THE
BIG WARM UP...WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING NORMALS BY A FEW DEGREES
DURING THE DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES STATEWIDE WITH LIGHT WEST
WINDS.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RIDGE ALOFT WELL IN PLACE
FOR MONDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ANOTHER FIVE
DEGREES OR MORE...BRINGING WARM DEPARTURE TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE DAY. WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AS SURFACE LOW
GRADUALLY DEEPENS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE IN THE DAY.
INTO TUESDAY...WARM TREND CONTINUING...WITH RIDGE REMAINING IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS ABOVE NORMAL
WITH SOME DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY. CONTINUED LIGHT
WINDS WITH SLACK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
INTO WEDNESDAY...NEXT INBOUND SYSTEM APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS.
WITH AMPLE SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM BUILDING IN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...AND INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WORKING INTO
SURFACE LOW OVER COLORADO...WILL EXPECT BOOSTS IN SOUTHWEST WIND
SPEEDS ON WEDNESDAY AND RETURN TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST AT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
SHY
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW SHRA AND TSRA TO AFFECT MAINLY AIRPORTS NEAR AND E OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THROUGH VERY EARLY EVENING WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
VICINITY OF RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CIGS WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAINLY
BETWEEN 050 AND 080. FARTHER TO THE W CHANCES ARE UNDER 10 PERCENT.
AFTER ACTIVITY DISSIPATES EARLY TO MID EVENING VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE INTO SUNDAY WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SHRA OR TSRA
EXPECTED SUNDAY.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 46 87 49 91 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 37 84 39 88 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 39 82 43 88 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 46 88 53 93 / 5 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 33 75 36 80 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 43 80 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 30 71 35 76 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 36 80 40 85 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 44 83 48 88 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 44 83 48 88 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 43 90 46 94 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 54 85 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 48 91 51 92 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 50 85 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 92 55 95 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 48 86 52 91 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 41 78 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 44 84 46 88 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 49 84 54 92 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 43 78 47 84 / 5 0 0 0
RATON........................... 39 83 44 88 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 41 82 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 46 80 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 50 86 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 48 88 53 93 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 52 91 58 97 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 54 91 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 51 90 57 95 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 53 87 59 93 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 54 92 58 99 / 5 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHY/43
