000
FXUS61 KALY 172357
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
757 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY RESULTING IN
RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN COOL WEATHER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM HAD ADVANCED TO JUST WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY BY NOON AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEY WERE
JUST WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MID AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS ABOUT 100 MILES TO THE WEST CLOSE TO
THE FRONT. THAT LINE HAD SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MID
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 70S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND WESTERN CONNECTICUT TO THE MID 60S IN THE WESTERN
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A FEW
DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER IN NEW
YORK STATE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE QUITE COLD...MINUS 3
AT 700 HPA AND MINUS 20 AT 500...SO MAY GET SMALL HAIL IN
SOME OF THE SHOWERS. FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE HUDSON
VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE RAIN ENDING LATER
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATER THIS NIGHT AND WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. USED BLEND OF GFS/NAM MOS
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WHICH WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON REGION. PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION IS FAIRLY DRY WITH PW VALUES 0.4 TO 0.6 INCH...
SO MOST AREAS WILL GET LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. HOWEVER
WITH CONVECTION AMOUNTS WILL VARY WIDELY. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY BE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY BE GUSTY IN THE STORMS BUT WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
5 MPH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONGWAVE TROUGH GETS REINFORCED OVER REGION KEEPING WEATHER COOL AND
UNSETTLED. MORE ENERGY WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE OVER PA AND
MOVE E-NE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. ALOFT...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MONDAY WITH
500 MB TEMPS OF 27-29 CELSIUS. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE COOL INSTABILITY
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SINCE IT IS SO COLD ALOFT.
YET ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY REINFORCING THE TROUGH.
THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ENERGY
WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST JUST SOUTH OF DELMARVA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES INTO LATE IN THE WEEK KEEPING REGION COOLER THAN
NORMAL...ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS. NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
FOR ALBANY...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO START BUILDING IN FROM WEST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SFC TROUGH AND AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN NY EARLY
THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY
SCATTERED WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING. ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. PLENTY OF VIRGA AND SPRINKLES AROUND WITH DRY LOW LEVELS
DUE TO RIDGING THAT HAS MOVED DOWNSTREAM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SCT SHRAS WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE BTWN 0000 UTC AND 0200
UTC. THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL SFC FLOW BACKING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. KGFL AND KPOU MAY HAVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLE
WITH VARIABLE WINDS AT/OR LESS THAN 3 KTS OVERNIGHT...AND SOME LIGHT
MIST MAY FORM NEAR KGFL...BUT OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH TO GO WITH
MVFR LEVEL OR LOWER MIST/FOG AT THIS TIME THERE.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW APPROACHES FROM
CNTRL-ERN PA LATE SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE N/NE OF THE WAVE TO QUICKLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS CLOSE TO MVFR LEVELS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER ERN NY BTWN
1800 UTC AND 2100 UTC.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR...RAIN ENDING.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR CIGS...BRISK WINDS...SCT -SHRA KALB NORTH.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRAS ESPEC LATE TUE
PM THRU THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER INTO MID WEEK AS REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 95 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND DROP TO MINIMUMS OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY NIGHT AND
DROP TO MINIMUMS OF 45 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR
35 TO 45 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE LITCHFIELD
HILLS.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO
15 TO 20 MPH MONDAY MORNING AND BECOMING GUSTY WITH GUSTY UP TO 35
MPH. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT TO 5 TO 10 MPH AND BE 10
TO 15 MPH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM FRIDAY/S SYSTEM GENERALLY RANGED FROM
0.50-0.75 ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS...AND NW CT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES DID OCCUR. FURTHER N/W...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHARPLY DECLINED...WITH GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
N/W OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
IMMEDIATELY TO THE S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE AMOUNTS WERE FAR
LESS THAN INDICATED IN STORM TOTAL ESTIMATES FROM THE KENX
RADAR...AS SIGNIFICANT BRIGHT BANDING OCCURRED DUE TO A RELATIVELY
LOW FREEZING LEVEL DURING THIS RAIN EVENT.
SMALLER STREAMS/CREEKS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND
SCHOHARIE BASIN EXPERIENCED MINOR RISES OF 1 FOOT OR LESS THUS FAR
FROM THE RAINFALL. SLIGHT ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY TODAY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...TO UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL...MINOR RISES ON SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH LARGER STEM RIVERS ALSO POTENTIALLY WITNESSING MINOR
RISES AS WELL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...RCK
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...RCK
