000
FXUS64 KEPZ 151014
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
341 AM MDT MON MAR 15 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING SCATTERED LOWLAND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CENTER WAS LOCATED ABOUT 100
MILES WEST OF ABQ EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE AND
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE LOW CENTER WILL TRACK TO NEAR SILVER
CITY BY 12Z AND DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO NEAR EL PASO BY 18Z.
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE EAST SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE CWA BY
22Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MEANWHILE
PUSHED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA.
AS UPPER LOW ADVANCES SOUTHWARD THE INDUCED DYNAMIC LIFT WILL
INTENSIFY AS DPVA SPREADS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO CREATE A DEEP EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT WITH STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE LIMITED BUT EXPECT DEEP LIFT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED LOWLAND PRECIP EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. DEEP LAYER COOLING INDICATES MAINLY SNOW
FALLING ABOVE 6000 FEET. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT NOW SHOWING LESS
SNOWFALL THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED OVER THE SACS BUT WILL CONTINUE
WITH SNOW WARNING AS EXPECT DYNAMIC AND UPSLOPE FORCING WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE ALSO ADDED
THUNDER TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS COLD AIR ALOFT MAY
ENGENDER WEAK INSTABILITY WITH EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL.
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING WITH THE CWA
LOCATED BETWEEN DEEP MID WEST TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND AFTER TODAY.
A MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES MAY CAUSE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. LATEST GFS DROPS ANOTHER
BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH THE CWA NEXT WEEKEND BUT BULK OF COOLER
AIR EXPECTED TO FLOW EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS TODAY
BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
LOWLANDS WITH SNOWS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AND ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW AREAS OF MODERATE OR
GREATER TURBULENCE BELOW 10,000 FEET AGL AND ALSO AROUND 25,000
FEET AGL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS BECOMING MOSTLY VFR BY
MIDNIGHT AS LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION WITH GENERALLY VFR CLEAR
WEATHER ON TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS TODAY
BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
LOWLANDS WITH SNOWS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITIES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MAY CAUSE
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS THE FIRE
DANGER SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 55 35 62 39 70 / 30 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 51 32 62 37 67 / 50 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 54 32 61 36 68 / 30 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 52 29 58 33 66 / 40 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 33 19 43 20 49 / 70 20 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 53 29 59 32 66 / 20 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 46 27 50 30 60 / 10 10 0 0 0
DEMING 56 32 61 34 68 / 10 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 61 32 64 34 70 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR NMZ025.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05 ROGASH
