000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191914
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
114 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE EAST. AS A RESULT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS ALONG WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER DRIER WEATHER LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MOSRING SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS HIGH AT 1.5 INCHES AND AFTERNOON
CAPES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. INVERTED TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED LIFT/DIFFERENTAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION SPREADING OVER THE CWA. THUS AFTER A ROUND OF
CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING A STRONGER CONVECTVE COMPLEX IS
ALREADY BECOMING ESTABLSIHED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HIGH AND DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT
LITTLE ENTRAINMENT EXPECTED ALOFT SO HEAVY RAINS MAY OCCUR.
HOWEVER INSTABILITY AND SOME DRYNESS AT LOW LEVEL SUGGEST ISOLATED
STORMS MAY ALSO HAVE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE INVERTED TROUGH TRACK IS VERY SLOWLY
SUPPRESSED SOUTH. ON SUNDAY STILL EXPECT A FEW STRONG HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS SUSTAIN MOISTURE
INFLOW AND DYNAMIC LIFT IS AGAIN INDUCED BY INVERTED TROUGH TO THE
EAST. HOWEVER AS UPPER HIGH EXPANDS NEXT WEEK ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASED STABILITY AND UNFAVORABLE
DYANMICS RESULTING IN DIMINISHED CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER SUNDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE TOWARD END OF
PERIOD HOWEVER AS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WESTERN GULF
INTO TEXAS. THUS WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z-21/00Z...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AGAIN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS NEAR ANY STORMS.
MOUNTAIN TOPS MAY BE BRIEFLY OBSCURED BY LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS INTENSE AND LESS IN AREA
COVERAGE AFTER 18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG...PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...PEA SIZE HALL AND
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY START TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN MAY PICK UP AGAIN NEAR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. A VERY SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FIRE LEVEL DANGERS SHOULD REMAIN AT LOW TO
MODERATE LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 70 93 70 95 71 / 40 20 20 20 20
SIERRA BLANCA TX 62 86 63 88 63 / 20 20 20 20 20
LAS CRUCES 69 91 69 93 71 / 40 20 20 20 20
ALAMOGORDO 66 90 66 92 67 / 40 20 20 20 20
CLOUDCROFT 46 71 47 73 48 / 40 30 30 20 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 90 68 92 69 / 40 20 20 20 20
SILVER CITY 60 82 60 84 60 / 40 30 30 30 30
DEMING 68 91 68 93 69 / 40 20 20 20 20
LORDSBURG 67 89 66 91 67 / 50 30 30 30 30
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05 ROGASH/NOVLAN
