000
FXUS61 KCLE 042149
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
549 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF MFD. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST. WE WILL
CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES FROM KNOX TO MAHONING. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. A SHARP GRADIENT IN MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE AREA. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LOW WHICH HAS
LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET AS HIGH CLOUDS PERSIST MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTH AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A GENERALLY DRY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SINCE THERE
IS SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER CAPE WITH A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE NEARLY WASHOUT OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY.
MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE WITH MINOR CHANGES. FOR MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND INDUCES A
MCS OVER INDIANA AND ADVECTS THAT FEATURE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OHIO. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST THIS FEATURE WHICH MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN OVER THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SEEMS TO STILL BE INDICATING A COLD FRONT SAGGING SE ACROSS
OUR AREA AROUND THE LATE TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT TIME FRAME THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.
PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
EXPECTED TRENDS IN WEATHER SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST
TO BE DONE. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING INTO OHIO FROM THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TRYING TO PULL BACK PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD INTO OUR
SOUTHERN TAF SITES AGAINST A DRIER NE FLOW. CAK AND YNG LOOK TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA THROUGH SAT MORN WITH A LESSER CHANCE
AT MFD. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT 850 MB SHOULD MEAN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MIDDAY SAT WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING.
ERI...CLE AND POSSIBLY TOL SHOULD ONLY SEE LIMITED CU DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO LAKE SHADOW EFFECTS. CLOUDS AND PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN PART OF
AREA TODAY WILL KEEP SURFACE FROM DRYING OUT SO EXPECT MORE FOG TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT IN SOUTHERNMOST TAFS BUT THINKING VSBY SHOULD STILL
STAY 2SM OR BETTER.
.OUTLOOK...SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
MORE FOG EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. PESKY UPPER TROUGH STILL HANGING AROUND
SUNDAY SO A FEW MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN
TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DROP SE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THREAT
LIKELY TO REMAIN ON WED. OUTSIDE OF THE LOWERED CONDITIONS DURING
THE CONVECTIVE PRECIP SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WAVES ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ERIE HAVE KICKED UP TO 3 TO 5
FEET AS PER SEVERAL REPORTS WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. UPDATED TO
ADD A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING FOR THE AREAS WEST OF
AVON POINT. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 PM. ELSEWHERE 2 TO 3
FOOT WAVES LOOK REASONABLE.
FOR SATURDAY LOOK FOR A NORTHEAST FLOW AS A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SOUTHWARD HAS BEEN IMPEDED BY A LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT THAT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE SATURDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AS NEXT FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE WIND GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES
BY MIDWEEK. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE BY WEDNESDAY
AND THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REL
NEAR TERM...REL
SHORT TERM...REL
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KIELTYKA
