000
FXUS64 KSJT 172319
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
619 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008
.AVIATION...
A FEW SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE AT THE KBBD-KJCT-KSOA TERMINALS
THRU ABOUT 01Z BEFORE DISSIPATING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT OR ABOVE 7 KFT THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR BY AROUND 12Z SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LGT AND VRB TONIGHT
BECOMING NORTH AT ABOUT 10 KTS OR SO AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008/
SYNOPSIS...
CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR SHOWING UPPER LOW EVIDENT OVER W TX THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FURTHER W THAN MODELS HAVE PREDICTED...
LEAVING US ON THE WET SIDE OF THINGS UNTIL IT MOVES OFF TO THE E
TONIGHT. THUS...WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS FOR THE EVEN HRS.
ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNSET. JUST AS ONE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT.
ANOTHER SHOULD DEVELOP JUST OFF OF BAJA TONIGHT...AND WILL EVER
SO SLOWLY NUDGE ACROSS OLD MEX THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
BY MID WEEK THIS LOW MAY OPEN UP AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS TX THROUGH
THU. THEN ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL DIG INTO THE DESERT
SW/BAJA SETTING UP A GOOD PACIFIC UPPER MOISTURE PLUME FOR THE
WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK TROF WILL MOVE EWD TONIGHT LEAVING DRY AND
HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK...A DRY
LINE FEATURE WILL SET UP ACROSS W TX AND TRY TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS
INTO WC TX ON THU...MOST LIKELY RETREATING BACK WWD LATE THU.
LOOKING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS TO RETURN BY THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK AS DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER SSW FLOW AND
INTERACT WITH MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. UNTIL THEN...THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK COULD BRING UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY TRIPLE
DIGITS TO THE REGION.
11/KEISER
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE DANGER WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE PANHANDLE...WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO INCREASE
THE FIRE DANGER.
04
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 55 91 64 98 / 20 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 55 92 60 99 / 20 0 0 0
JUNCTION 54 93 59 97 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
